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US Coal Exports to India Expected to Rise Due to China Tariffs

The United States is expected to boost coal exports to India after China imposed tariffs on energy imports from the U.S., five industry officials said, potentially eroding Australia and Russia's market shares in the Indian market.

China's Finance Ministry last week said it would impose levies of 15% on imports of U.S. coal, which the officials said could push U.S. miners to ship to India - the world's second-largest coal importer behind China.

"Three U.S. cargoes that were supposed to go to China have landed in India and around 10 more cargoes are waiting. These are huge capesizes and that could further drag down prices," Vasudev Pamnani, director at India's I-Energy Natural Resources, said.

"More U.S. coal imports could have an impact on Australia," Pamnani told the Coaltrans India conference on Monday.

In volume terms, the U.S. accounts for a small part of Chinese imports of coal, but the value of coking coal shipments - used mainly by steelmakers - rose by nearly a third to $1.84 billion in 2024.

Malcolm Roberts, chief marketing officer at the biggest U.S. coal miner Peabody Energy (BTU.N), opens new tab, said on a conference call with analysts last week that more U.S. coal could go to India and more Australian coal to China as a result of the tariffs.

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Chinese Tariffs on U.S. Energy Bring Deja Vu to Local Players

The last time China imposed tariffs on U.S. energy exports, in 2018, Ernie Thrasher predicted it would last four to six months, tops.

But the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies lasted for more than a year and a half. And Mr. Thrasher, who founded and leads the Latrobe-based coal broker and shipper XCoal Energy & Resources, said he learned a lesson: “Don’t try to outguess trade negotiations.”

Barring a last minute deal, U.S. coal, gas, and oil heading to China will be greeted with a 15% tariff starting Monday, as part of China’s retaliation for the 10% tariff on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump enacted Tuesday.

It remains to be seen how Appalachian coal producers, including Canonsburg-based Core Natural Resources, and natural gas companies like Downtown-based EQT Corp — whose CEO, Toby Rice, is an evangelist for U.S. liquefied natural gas exports — will be impacted.

U.S. energy exports account for a single digit percentage of China’s energy imports. But given its size and role in the global energy market, the trade shuffle will leave a mark.

China as a Last Resort

XCoal began shifting its business away from China in anticipation of the tariffs months ago.

Its website says 14% of its revenue comes from China, but that number has dwindled, as has the Chinese market for metallurgical coal, which is used in steelmaking.

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Met Coal Group Taking Wait and See Attitude With New Tariff From China

A group of metallurgical coal producers is taking a “wait and see” attitude on China’s announced 15% tariff on met coal.

China announced the additional tariff last Monday after President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on goods made in China.


Ben Beakes


Met coal, also called coking coal, is used in the production of steel.

Metallurgical Coal Producers Association President Ben Beakes said his group isn’t pushing the panic button because there’s so much that is unknown.

“The tariff deals and announcements literally change by the hour,” Beakes told MetroNews. “We don’t know what the final product will be after negotiations are had.”

House of Delegates Speaker Roger Hanshaw expressed concern as to how the tariff would impact coal production in West Virginia and ultimately state revenues. 

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The World Isn't Close to Breaking Free From Coal - In Some Countries, Demand For it is Surging

The world won't be able to release its grip on coal anytime soon.

"Nothing can destroy coal," U.S. President Donald Trump said at the recent World Economic Forum. "Not the weather, not a bomb."
 
U.S. exports of coal have been rising steadily to satisfy growing global demand for the world's dirtiest fossil fuel, even though its domestic consumption has decreased.

On top of that, the world's coal capacity reached a new record high of nearly 2,175 gigawatts in 2024, data from Global Energy Monitor showed on Feb. 6. Coal capacity is the overall power output that can be generated from coal-fired power plants.

"The global shift away from coal remains challenging, largely driven by rising demand in Asia, even as Europe and the U.S. see significant declines in coal consumption," said Dorothy Mei, project manager for Global Energy Monitor's Global Coal Mine Tracker.

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Power Demand Math Doesn’t Work Without Coal

The nation’s grid operators are now forecasting 8.2 percent growth in electricity demand over just the next five years, largely driven by the rapid addition of AI data centers. That’s equivalent to hooking up nearly 50 million homes to the grid by 2029.

It’s no secret, U.S. power supplies are already alarmingly tight, particularly in periods of peak demand. For the nation’s utilities and energy and reliability regulators, the answer to meeting that demand is increasingly running through the coal fleet.


Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Mark Christie recently pointed out in a Twitter thread, at moments of peak demand during the nation’s latest brush with severe cold, dispatchable generation provided the lion’s share of power. He wrote, “We need to stop the premature retirements of dispatchable generation and build more, otherwise we freeze in the dark. That is reality.”

Utilities are getting the message. One after another, they are pushing back or cancelling coal plant retirements. Georgia Power is the latest utility to recognize it needs its coal capacity to meet the soaring demand now on its doorstep. In a new integrated resource plan modelling its future investments, Georgia Power indicated that it is going to be upgrading and extending the life of units at two large coal plants to at least 2035. Those plants, Bowen and Scherer, had been scheduled for retirement in 2028.

Why the change? Georgia Power is facing enormous demand growth—growth that is coming overnight. The utility sees 8,200 megawatts of electricity demand growth by 2030 — about 50 percent more than current peak demand. And while electrification and the addition of major new manufacturing projects are driving some of the new demand, a utility executive told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that 80 percent of the projected demand growth is coming from data centers. 

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