Divergence in the Coal Market Offers Opportunities
Global seaborne coal flows mask a sharp divergence between thermal and metallurgical coal markets.
Thermal coal volumes declined as weaker European and U.S. demand offset resilient Asian imports, while met coal flows surged on stronger demand from China and Japan. Looking ahead, seasonal power demand and Q3 steel procurement should keep coal trade and associated tonne-miles elevated through August.
Global seaborne coal flows increased by 1.0% y/y to reach 116.5 mt in July 2026.
Global seaborne thermal coal flows fell 2.3% to 87.3 mt in July 2026.
Global seaborne met coal jumped 11.8% to reach 27.2 mt in July 2026.
China remains the top destination for thermal coal, accounting for 32% of market share in July 2026.
India remains the top destination for met coal, accounting for just under 20% of market share in July 2026.
Global seaborne coal flows were 116.5 mt in July 2026, up 1% y/y, a small change overall, yet the underlying data below the headline figure points to the two main coal types performing very differently.
Thermal coal flows declined by over 2% to 87.3 million tonnes, while metallurgical coal rose nearly 12% to 27.2 million tonnes. Notably, Asian thermal coal imports remained robust through July, with the top four importers (China, India, Japan, and South Korea) experiencing an 18.3% year-over-year increase.
These regions continue to use coal to stabilise grid infrastructure during the typically high power demand summer months, when domestic and industrial cooling is ramped up..
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Hidden in Plain Sight: Existing Coal Plants offer the Generation that Today Demands
Thanks to this new age of electricity demand and power-hungry data centers, the U.S. currently has record amounts of electricity generation in development. But that build out is getting both harder and more expensive, in the face of demand that waits for no one.
What’s the holdup? Baseload power projects requiring natural gas turbines are facing years long delays as turbine manufacturers are taking orders now for delivery in 2031. More delays come from those who simply don’t want new transmission in their backyards, with about a third of projects challenged in court in the predevelopment phase (the number’s even higher for solar projects, two-thirds of which are litigated). Even more energy projects are stuck waiting years in interconnection queues.
But while we continue to wind ourselves in knots over the new generation conundrum, a real solution is available: the existing coal fleet.
Thankfully the Trump administration recognizes that we have existing megawatts hiding in plain sight in the form of coal plants that are either prematurely retiring or are running at capacity factors well below what they could produce.
Last week, the Department of Energy issued an emergency order to keep the J.H. Campbell plant open through mid-November 2026. The plant was originally scheduled to retire in 2025 but has proven critical to the region’s electricity reliability during periods of peak demand and low generation from intermittent sources of energy..
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Global Coal Prices Rise as Europe, China and Met Coal Strengthen
Global coal prices rose over the past week as stronger sentiment returned to key coal markets.
Upward movements prevailed in the coal market over the past week: indices in Europe rose; prices in China firmed; in Australia, thermal coal quotations showed mixed dynamics, while metallurgical prices jumped sharply.
European thermal coal indices surged above 124 USD/t. Coal found support from firmer oil and gas quotations at the TTF hub amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which again raised doubts about an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran declared the waterway would remain blocked until the US accepts its terms and pays reparations for damages, while the US made similar demands of Iran, weakening hopes for an agreement. Additionally, renewable and nuclear generation in Europe declined due to the heatwave.
Gas quotations on the TTF hub rose over the week to 721.67 USD/1,000 m3 (+25.93 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). EU underground gas storage stood at 59% (+1 ppts w-o-w), 13 ppts below last year’s level of 72%.
South African High-CV 6,000 exceeded 109 USD/t, following the European market. High-CV thermal coal prices reached a one-month high, resulting from Middle East risks and interest from Indian traders. A slight increase in sponge iron prices raised expectations of demand for South African coal from this sector, though steady availability of domestic coal in India limited interest in imported material.
Furthermore, a train derailment on August 12 severely disrupted rail deliveries to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT). The incident occurred just a week after operator Transnet resumed operations, following scheduled annual maintenance.
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EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Raises 2026 US Coal Export Forecasts
In the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA raised its 2026 US coal export projection to 102 million short tons from the previously forecasted 98 million short tons, driven by a 32% year-over-year jump in June exports.
Metallurgical coal shipments grew throughout the first half of 2026, supported by mine openings and reopenings including Blue Creek, Longview, and Leer South. Steam coal exports rebounded in April, May, and June after early declines.
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Managing Hazards: The Hierarchy of Controls
In 2025, the mining industry's all-injury rate hit an historic low.
According to MSHA, there were 1.74 injuries per 200,000 hours worked by miners, down from 1.82 the year before.
But that number didn't drop on its own. It's the result of better training through CORESafety and other safety and health management systems. It's smarter engineering, and a framework that's been quietly guiding decisions on mine sites for decades called "The Hierarchy of Controls."
Hazard recognition is one of the first steps in risk management.
Here's what to ask yourself on the job -
What could possibly go wrong?
What might the consequences be?
How likely is it that something will happen?
What can I do about it?
What WILL I actually do? How could other processes be affected?
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