Below are the highlights of EIA's most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook:
Global oil prices. We expect oil prices will decline in 2026, as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise. Global inventories continue increasing into 2027, albeit at a slower pace. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $56 per barrel (b) in 2026, 19% less than in 2025, then average $54/b in 2027.
Global oil production. We expect global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 and 0.5 million b/d in 2027. Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in OPEC+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of OPEC+, primarily in South America. Our forecast assumes existing sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027.
U.S. crude oil production. After reaching an annual record of 13.6 million b/d in 2025, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will decrease in the forecast, declining by less than 1% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027. With sustained lower crude oil prices, we expect crude oil production will decrease as the slowdown in drilling activity will outpace increases in drilling productivity. The West Texas Intermediate price averages $52/b in 2026 and $50/b in 2027 in our forecast, down from $65/b in 2025.
U.S. gasoline prices. Retail gasoline prices in our forecast for 2026 and 2027 are lower compared with 2025, which largely reflects our forecast of lower crude oil prices. We forecast U.S. gasoline prices in 2026 will average just over $2.90 per gallon (gal), a decrease of nearly 20 cents/gal from 2025. In 2027, we forecast prices to remain mostly flat at an annual average of just over $2.90/gal.
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Coal's Comeback: A Year of Realism, Renewal, and Restored Confidence
As the calendar turns, it is worth pausing to take stock of where we’ve been and where we’re headed. For America’s coal industry—and especially for the men and women of the West Virginia coalfields—2025 marked a turning point. After years of regulatory headwinds and policy uncertainty, the nation began to regain its footing. The change did not come by accident. It came because leadership changed, priorities changed, and common sense began to reassert itself.
When President Donald Trump began his second term last January, he did so with a clear message: America would no longer apologize for producing energy. From day one, the administration moved to restore balance to federal energy policy—recognizing that affordability, reliability, and national security matter just as much as aspirational targets and glossy press releases.
That shift has made a difference. Regulatory reform efforts in 2025 focused on removing onerous rules, restoring permitting discipline, and re-centering federal agencies on statutory authority rather than ideological agendas. The result has been greater certainty for energy producers, utilities, and investors. Markets function better when rules are clear and durable. Coal has benefited because it competes best on a level field.
At the national level, the reassertion of American energy dominance has not been theoretical. It has been practical. The administration’s approach acknowledged what grid operators and engineers have said for years: you cannot run a modern economy on intermittent power alone. Coal remains essential to grid stability, particularly during peak demand, extreme weather, and supply disruptions. In 2025, those realities became harder to ignore.
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A Needed Reprieve for Colorado Coal
The U.S. Department of Energy issued an emergency order on Dec. 30 keeping Unit 1 of the Craig Station coal-fired plant running at least through March of this year.
It’s welcome news for Colorado consumers. It would be better still if it were the first of many such orders — federal or state — to keep Colorado coal plants online before they’re prematurely shuttered.
Craig Units 1 and 2
Craig is one source of roughly 1,267 megawatts of coal-generated electricity set for early retirement by the end of next year, as mandated by the Polis administration’s green-energy agenda. Other plants slated for closure are in Brush and Pueblo.
Pueblo’s Comanche Station already got a reprieve. Comanche’s Unit 2 was scheduled to close but will stay open for an extra year because Unit 3 is closed for repairs. That was good news, too.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright deserves kudos for looking out for his fellow Colorado ratepayers who long for reliable, affordable energy.
Meanwhile, as The Gazette reported Friday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has rejected Colorado’s latest haze-reduction plan, saying the state wrongly tried to force coal-fired power plants to close early as part of efforts to clear up views in national parks and wilderness areas.
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Coal and Power Groups Back Norfolk Southern Railroad Merger
Several major coal producers and power industry groups are urging federal regulators to approve the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger.
The producers argue that reliable rail service plays a key role in keeping the nation’s electric grid dependable as electricity demand increases.
The two railroads recently filed their merger application with the Surface Transportation Board, which must approve any consolidation in the freight rail industry. If approved, the deal would create the country’s first transcontinental railroad.
Supporters of the merger argue that the stakes extend beyond rail logistics and directly impact energy reliability, particularly as data centers, artificial intelligence, and domestic manufacturing create increased electricity demand.
America’s Power, a national trade association representing coal-fired power plants and their supply chain, told the Surface Transportation Board that rail transportation of coal is “a crucial link” in maintaining reliable and affordable electricity.
The group noted that railroads transport about 70% of the coal used by American power plants, adding that many plants depend exclusively on rail service for fuel deliveries.
America’s Power warned that coal’s role in the electric grid is becoming increasingly important as policymakers confront warnings of potential electricity shortages caused, in part, by the rapid growth of AI and data centers.
Major coal producers echoed that message in separate filings.
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Warrior Celebrates Blue Creek Mine With Ribbon-Cutting Ceremony
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. celebrated the completion of the Blue Creek Mine project, a world-class longwall mine located in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. Warrior invested approximately $1 billion to develop the Blue Creek Mine, which will add more than 300 new jobs to the area.
Company executives were joined by state and local elected officials, federal delegation staff, Bureau of Land Management leadership, and industry partners to celebrate the project and the significant impact it will have on the local and state economy.
The Blue Creek Mine is a single longwall mine and is expected to have the capacity to produce an average of 6.0 million short tons annually of metallurgical (met) coal over the first ten years of production. This will increase Warrior’s annual nameplate capacity by approximately 75%.
The Blue Creek Mine project also includes a rail load-out facility located in Fayette County, a barge load-out facility located in Walker County, and a state-of-the-art curved overland belt to deliver coal to the rail load-out facility. The curved overland belt is a unique feature to Blue Creek that will allow clean coal to be transported to a rail facility. This significantly reduces truck traffic and limits the impact on local communities.
In addition to Warrior’s investment substantial commitments from other stakeholders across the state are supporting the growth of the Blue Creek project and related developments in Alabama. Norfolk Southern is investing over $200 million in its 3B Corridor, strengthening the connection between northern and central Alabama and the Port of Mobile. The Alabama Port Authority is also investing over $200 million to modernize and improve efficiency at its McDuffie Coal Terminal, supported by an additional $20 million in funding from the Alabama Legislature. Further enhancing logistics capacity, Parker Towing Company, Inc. has invested over $20 million in capital equipment to ensure efficient barge transportation.
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